"I have to tell you that the situation is terrible"

Dr Bakry Elmedni was born in Sudan and works as an associate professor at Long Island University New York in the Department of Public Health, Policy and Administration.

He is also the spokesperson for the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (Taqaddum), a large civil society anti-war coalition that campaigns for peace, a negotiated solution to the conflict and democracy. The interview with him was conducted by Tobias Schäfer-Sell, Advocacy and Ecumenical Cooperation Officer for Malawi at the Ev.-luth. Mission in Lower Saxony (ELM) on 7 February 2026.

Prof Bakry, the war in Sudan began in April 2023, almost two years ago, and was preceded by other wars and military conflicts in the region. What is the current situation in Sudan?

It's not just about who comes to power. Rather, it is a war over the legitimacy of the state. The people do not feel represented by the state. And when they ask questions about economic development or cultural representation, the answer is usually "weapons". But the real issues that bother people remain unaddressed.

You can rule by force, but you cannot administer without understanding the problems and trying to address them. We didn't have administrators in Sudan's history, we had rulers; whether colonial or post-colonial, they wanted to control, dominate and ensure that no one challenged their authority.

And then we have these two powerful armies that agreed to remove the civilian government but couldn't agree on who has access to state power and wealth, so they started fighting.

There is no region in Sudan that is not affected by the war. Around 14 million people are currently displaced within the country, and around 4.5 million people have fled to neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Chad and Egypt. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), around 30 million Sudanese are in urgent need of food aid. The health system has collapsed. There are no functioning state institutions. And, of course, there are deep divisions along ethnic, geographical and class lines.

I have to tell you that the situation is terrible. There have been many attempts to reach a ceasefire, but all have failed. At the moment, both sides believe that the other side should no longer exist, which makes negotiations difficult. In addition, of course, there are many foreign interventions in the country.

It is a humanitarian disaster that is considered a 'forgotten crisis'. Why is the Sudan conflict so little discussed in Europe?

There are many reasons for this. In fact, the Sudan crisis is bigger than the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine combined in terms of its impact, death toll and human suffering. But in the international global system, not all conflicts are equal. It's about who dies, where people are geographically located and what colour their skin is.

Ukraine is closer to Europe. The Middle East conflict has existed since 1948 and there is a historical connection to it. Sudan is unfortunately in Africa. So from the West's point of view, it's 'another war' in Africa. People don't want to deal with it.

There is also competition for attention and we all have limited capacities. There is a feeling that there is not much we can do or change. This is part of the emotional exhaustion and also the complexity of the situation. We don't like it when things get complicated. People want to be able to choose the "good side". Unfortunately, the only good thing is what the Sudanese people are trying to do, which is to survive.

You have argued that foreign powers are intervening in the conflict. What role does Germany play?

I don't think there is any evidence that Germany is supporting any of the parties to the conflict. But Germany has good relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which are part of the conflict. Egypt, Germany and the EU have very good relations with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and they import oil and gas from all these countries. At the same time, these countries are involved in the Sudan conflict to varying degrees.

I don't know to what extent the European countries are prepared to take a tough stance towards their allies that runs counter to their own economic interests. So I understand that. It is a compromise. But without pressure on these countries to negotiate, Sudan will never find peace and will remain a place of war. The regional division could lead to a long-lasting conflict.

What role do Ethiopia and the Great Renaissance Dam or the conflict over the Nile water play?

That is another strategic factor. Ethiopia has built a dam. In 1959, an agreement was concluded between Sudan and Egypt on the sharing of the Nile water. Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania were not consulted.

Sudan will probably not be as badly affected as Egypt. But the Egyptians began to see this as a strategic existential issue for themselves, and rightly so, and to work towards weakening Ethiopia.

Add to that Eritrea, which believes that the only way to become fully independent is to weaken Ethiopia. This is how these alliances are formed in the region.

What is the African Union's current position on Sudan and how should it respond?

The African Union cannot mediate, it cannot do anything about it. As far as a ceasefire and negotiations are concerned, it has neither the means nor the will to do so, nor does it have the technical capacity or even the political will, as it is being pulled in different directions.

What role does religion play in this conflict?

Well, religion plays a big role because the hard core of the groups that support Burhan and ally with Egypt to a certain extent are still the same Muslim Brotherhood or offshoots of it. They still control the economy, the civil service and the police.

Christians are a minority in the Nuba Mountains and some parts of the Blue Nile. The Christians in the Nuba Mountains have been bombed, we have seen churches destroyed and in Khartoum we have seen mosques attacked. Whether this was intentional on one side or just collateral damage of the war needs to be investigated. But unlike the Central African Republic, where religion has been instrumentalised in a brutal conflict, the dynamics of ethnicity and geography are currently more pronounced.

People are very good at finding reasons to hate and to "other" someone. At the beginning they said these are militias that are not from Sudan but from other countries, so it's very much about geography. That makes it easy to dominate people and set them against each other. This is happening all over the world.

Do you see an opportunity for the opposition to come together under the slogan "Unity for Peace"?

We don't define ourselves as opposition because there is no recognised government in Sudan. We are peace actors and as civilians we never believe that war is the answer. As the largest organised coalition, we do not support either side.

There are many people who are against the war, but they are not organised in any way. So what we need right now is to get the group of non-partisan civilians to speak with one voice against the war and agree on a minimum agenda that says war is not the solution, that Sudan should remain united, that we will not allow hate speech and the idea of marginalisation among us, and that we believe in equal rights for all citizens. We simply need these foundations.

The next step is to reach out to those civilians who have chosen sides; unfortunately there is so much anger, hatred and prejudice.

If we achieve a humanitarian ceasefire, hopefully the dynamic will change and the anger will eventually subside. Then you can slowly start to rally people around a message of peace: We understand your pain, we understand that you are angry, but anger will not get you an answer.

The challenge is that people do not see peace as a way, but rather as an obstacle to taking revenge. That is why many of them speak negatively about us. There is extreme polarisation on both sides. Anyone who is not for me is against me. It's like a mantra.

We have learnt from other conflicts that there can be no peace without justice. What would a just peace in Sudan look like, what do the people of Sudan expect? Is South Africa's path out of apartheid a role model?

I think what we really need to negotiate is an approach to accountability, which is a pillar of transitional justice. Those who have committed crimes, who are responsible for ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity need to be held accountable. For this we need a combination of local traditional systems, modern systems and perhaps even the International Criminal Court.

But there is so much suffering, and none of it can be tried in a court of law. So at some point we have to come to a point where there has to be a transition to truth and reconciliation. We have a big project to ask people what they want justice to be.

So in a way, South Africa is acting as a role model with the Truth and Reconciliation Commission led by Desmond Tutu. For something like this to be possible, you need wise leaders. At the moment we don't have that mentality, the current leaders are talking about revenge. There are no De Klerks or Mandelas in Sudan.

We can also learn something from Rwanda, how they brought people together and talked about reconciliatory justice. We can learn something from Argentina. We can learn something from Chile. We can even learn something from Europe. But in the end, I think Sudan will develop its own project. The Sudanese people have a long tradition of talking about reparation and reconciliation themselves. In Darfur there is Rakuba, in eastern Sudan there is the tradition of Galad. So we have these traditional models that we can build on and also learn from other experiences.

But at the moment I don't even know how we are going to get there. We are now thinking about getting people medicine and food so that they can at least survive. At the moment, justice means stopping the killing. That's the first step.

 

Background:

The war in Sudan is currently the worst humanitarian disaster in the world. In addition, there is a massive famine. More than twelve million Sudanese men and women have been displaced. Tens of thousands have fallen victim to the war.

Rival factions of the ruling military have been fighting each other since mid-April 2023: the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under de facto head of state Abdel Fattah Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under his former deputy Mohammed Hamdan Daglo.

 

This is why the ELM is involved:

The Sudan conflict has a very direct impact on the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and the Central African Republic, with which the ELM has close ties through its partner churches. Between 1987 and 2015, international Sudan conferences were held in Hermannsburg under the leadership of the Sudan Focal Point Europe and Sudanforum e.V.. The Norden church district maintains active cooperation with partners in Sudan. Today there is a lack of civil society attention and support for the people of Sudan. The ELM branch office has established contacts with migrant groups in Hanover and a joint Sudan Forum was held in January this year.